[SMM Analysis] China Will Implement Steel Export License Management in 2026: What’s the Outlook for December Galvanized Sheet Exports?

SMM Dec 23 News:

According to the latest customs data, in terms of galvanized sheets, exports in November 2025 were 1.1885 million mt, down 8.53% MoM and up 13.6% YoY. From January to November 2025, cumulative galvanized sheet exports reached 12.93 million mt, up 10.38% YoY. Overall, domestic galvanized sheet exports in November decreased slightly compared to October.

By country, the Philippines imported 110,000 mt of Chinese galvanized sheets in November, accounting for 9.26%, maintaining its top position; Thailand imported 107,000 mt, with a share of 9.01%, remaining second; Brazil imported 52,500 mt, accounting for 4.42%, rising to third. In terms of changes, imports by South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Brazil saw significant decreases, while Japan, Sri Lanka, Peru, and Guatemala showed varying degrees of increase.

SMM believes that the MoM decrease in galvanized sheet exports in November was largely in line with earlier expectations. On one hand, the significant pullback in South Korean imports of Chinese galvanized sheets contributed to the main reduction in November exports. On the other hand, due to the new regulations disclosed by the State Taxation Administration, some orders for forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms were rushed to meet deadlines in September and October, which preempted part of the November orders, affecting the export volume.

Looking ahead to December. On December 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 79 of 2025, implementing export license management for certain steel products. It requires foreign trade operators to apply for export licenses with export contracts and product quality inspection certificates issued by producers. The announcement will take effect on January 1, 2026. It is understood that this round of export license management covers 300 commodity codes, spanning the entire industry chain from raw materials to finished products, including galvanized sheets. Currently, there are no specific regulations for the new export license for steel products, but some galvanized sheet factories may continue to rush to export before January, making it unlikely for a significant decline in China's galvanized sheet exports in December.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)